Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 188.503275 230.861294 284.174248 357.653512 458.695685 5.965594e+02 8.060230e+02
2025-02-09 142.986585 191.983420 262.258511 375.420137 563.889311 8.888560e+02 1.557972e+03
2025-02-16 116.888509 166.922957 245.476123 387.353595 662.665524 1.246121e+03 2.881939e+03
2025-02-23 99.590177 148.888755 231.798861 395.923770 758.640226 1.689926e+03 5.330337e+03
2025-03-02 84.840112 131.006174 212.582733 385.495803 808.732789 2.087909e+03 9.029648e+03
2025-03-09 73.852583 117.061625 196.571919 375.121206 853.316942 2.539541e+03 1.568244e+04
2025-03-16 64.758338 104.749005 180.713774 359.396763 875.216832 2.961199e+03 2.671946e+04
2025-03-23 62.189280 103.783394 186.810223 397.178479 1085.819441 4.662090e+03 1.060304e+05
2025-03-30 57.361726 97.696128 180.890483 402.616925 1196.544827 6.217234e+03 4.281503e+05
2025-04-06 54.109079 94.162064 179.721777 420.739873 1376.906063 9.127351e+03 1.044540e+07
2025-04-13 49.714640 87.694951 170.653134 412.892079 1442.625281 1.147452e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 48.632292 87.899135 177.203035 455.972839 1811.201183 2.162000e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 46.993432 86.878698 181.103583 494.900978 2246.494891 4.477661e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 45.075118 84.988861 182.494084 526.838741 2722.378067 1.015524e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 42.863926 82.126142 180.722141 546.587853 3173.086698 2.462732e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 40.678153 79.029852 177.692260 560.366735 3631.601777 7.262969e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 37.849519 74.086820 168.536506 543.897003 3754.724050 1.571930e+06 NaN
2025-06-01 35.328884 69.619850 160.057856 527.547017 3864.632243 4.105777e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 32.852971 65.020286 150.503184 502.890498 3831.958752 9.438096e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 32.649313 65.930764 157.587793 562.413452 5232.649951 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 31.268040 63.758738 154.809838 571.058212 5913.624256 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 30.387250 62.756960 155.575964 600.001635 7236.742571 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 28.805652 59.800334 149.517309 587.442708 7573.543473 NaN NaN